The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed the presence of El Niño conditions, with an 80% probability between June and August and a 90% probability thereafter. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo identified El Niño as the primary driver of global weather and climate patterns. “The impact of an El Niño extends far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, affecting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods across all regions,” Saulo stated.
Rising Concerns Over Extreme Temperatures
Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, exceeding 6°C above average, are fueling concerns that this El Niño could be amplified by existing excess heat. This amplification could negatively impact vulnerable and unprepared communities worldwide. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged a serious response, emphasizing, “The world should treat this as the urgent climate warning that it is.”
Past El Niño Impacts and Climate Change
Saulo noted that the latest El Niño event in 2023-24 ranks among the five most powerful on record and contributed to the record global temperatures observed in 2024. According to the WMO, there is no evidence that climate change is increasing the frequency or intensity of El Niño events themselves. However, warmer oceans and atmosphere provide more energy and moisture for extreme weather events, potentially intensifying the impacts associated with El Niño.
El Niño Preparedness and Early Warning Systems
“We understand El Niño; we can be much better prepared for it thanks to science and the investments many countries have made to prepare well,” said the WMO chief. She added that extreme events, in addition to El Niño, require greater investment. In the coming months, the WMO will focus on monitoring conditions to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian organizations, and other climate-related sectors. “Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital for saving lives and reducing the impact on our economies and communities,” Saulo emphasized.
El Niño and La Niña Explained
Both El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful natural climate patterns on Earth. El Niño is characterized by warming of the surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts for about nine to twelve months. Its development usually begins between March and June, peaks between November and February, and its global temperature impacts often become more apparent in the second year following its development. ENSO events are categorized into four types: weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. The WMO stated, “Even a moderate El Niño makes some weather and climate extremes more likely.”
