The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released a report, compiled by the UK Met Office, indicating an 86% probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record. Furthermore, the report suggests a 91% likelihood that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5 degrees Celsius in at least one year over the next five years.
The 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is a critical benchmark for the Paris Agreement’s climate change mitigation efforts. Scientists warn that a sustained breach of this level could significantly increase the risks of extreme weather events, ecosystem collapse, food insecurity, and displacement.
Climate Targets Remain Within Reach
However, the report emphasizes that such temporary exceedances do not render the Paris Agreement’s long-term climate objectives unattainable. The agreement refers to warming sustained over decades, not isolated yearly peaks.
Nevertheless, these projections underscore the accelerating momentum of global warming and the increasing frequency of extreme heat. Annual average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average. The report also estimates a 75% chance that the average warming over the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.
“We anticipate the possibility of an El Niño developing late in 2026, which will increase the chances of 2027 being the next record-breaking year,” stated rapporteur Leon Hermanson.
Arctic Warming Accelerating
Projections indicate that the Arctic region will continue to warm significantly faster than the rest of the planet. Over the next five Northern Hemisphere winters, temperatures in the Arctic are expected to be, on average, 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 baseline, more than three and a half times the projected global average increase for the same period.
Scientists also foresee continued reductions in Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk. The loss of sea ice is crucial as it diminishes the Arctic’s ability to reflect sunlight, thereby accelerating warming, and disrupts polar ecosystems, weather patterns, and livelihoods.
Shifting Precipitation Patterns
Consistent with a warming climate, the report points to expanding changes in global precipitation patterns. Between 2026 and 2030, above-average rainfall is anticipated in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, while drier conditions are projected for the Amazon region and some subtropical areas. Wetter conditions are also likely in higher northern latitudes during the coming winters.
These forecasts are intended to assist governments, regional climate centers, and national weather agencies in planning for risks that are no longer distant projections but are increasingly part of the world’s near-term climate outlook. The UK Met Office produced the report as the WMO’s Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction.
