Approximately 28 million people in Afghanistan are estimated to be living in poverty, a situation exacerbated by massive population returns, worsening drought conditions, and declining international aid.
Despite registering economic growth for the second consecutive year, Afghanistan’s real GDP saw a modest increase of 1.9% in 2025, down from 2.3% the previous year. However, a population growth rate of 6.5% led to an estimated 2.1% decrease in per capita real GDP.
‘A Nation Under Growing Pressure’
According to the ‘Afghanistan Socio-Economic Assessment’ report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), while the proportion of Afghans facing livelihood insecurity remained largely unchanged, an additional 1.4 million people encountered difficulties in 2025 due to the return of 2.9 million Afghans to the country.
Millions of families continue to struggle with access to essential needs such as water, food, healthcare, shelter, heating, and clothing. Over 80% of households are in debt, and approximately three-quarters rely on negative coping strategies to manage daily life.
Kanni Wignaraja, UNDP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific, stated, “This year’s report assessing Afghanistan’s socio-economic reality paints a picture of a nation under growing pressure.”
The scale of returns has created additional strain. Since 2023, approximately five million Afghans have returned to the country, with many arriving in communities already grappling with severe economic challenges.
According to the UNDP, 92% of recent returnees reported being unable to meet their essential life needs, compared to 74% nationally. In the provinces hosting the largest number of returnees, the official employment rate stands at a mere 3%, with 78% of the population dependent on daily casual labor.
Climate Shocks and Restrictions on Women Compound Issues
The report also highlights deteriorating climate conditions, with drought affecting 64% of the country last year. Access to adequate drinking water sharply declined from 59% in 2024 to 44%.
Concurrently, ongoing restrictions on women and girls further weaken Afghanistan’s economy and workforce.
Around 100 decrees issued by the Taliban administration since 2021 remain in effect, limiting women’s access to employment, education, and freedom of movement.
Afghanistan’s trade deficit surged to a record $11.3 billion in 2025, equivalent to approximately 60% of nominal GDP, driven by increased imports and stagnant exports.
Declining Aid Intensifies Humanitarian Pressures
A reduction in international aid is deepening the crisis. Total international aid to Afghanistan decreased by 16.5% in 2025, even as needs continue to rise.
Due to funding shortfalls, over 440 clinics have had to close or reduce services, increasing the proportion of people without access to healthcare from 16% in 2024 to 23% in 2025.
Stephen Rodriques, UNDP Resident Representative in Afghanistan, commented, “Communities across Afghanistan need more than short-term assistance. They need a pathway to progress.”
Rodriques added, “Investing in jobs, services, and local markets will help revitalize household economies and is vital to giving people a real chance to rebuild their lives and regain control over their futures.”
